The Brain-Computer Interface Avalanche Ahead
Originally published on X by Velco Dar. Read it here →
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“I want the cursor to go here, and it moved.” Noland Arbaugh - Neuralink’s first trial participant told me during our recent Zoom conversation - as he was sketching flower petals with his Neuralink N1 chip simply by thinking. “A flip switched in my brain and I realised oh… this is going to be a lot bigger, much more than I thought it was.”
When we talked, Noland had been living with the implant for over a year. His experience opens a window into an industry that still feels small but is accelerating fast.
Brain-computer interface companies have now raised more than $5 billion, nearly double the total from earlier this year. Morgan Stanley predicts a $400 billion addressable market in the United States alone, with global expansion on top. The gap between current funding and projected demand may be one of the largest arbitrage opportunities in technology today.
I have spent months mapping the BCI startup landscape. What surprises me most is how un-Silicon Valley it feels. America has 50 companies. Europe has close to 30, led by Spain, Switzerland, the U.K. and Germany. Asia-Pacific counts about 15, from China, South Korea, Japan and Australia. Smaller clusters are emerging in Canada, Israel, and Brazil.
Only two companies have reached unicorn status: Neuralink and MindMaze. Neuralink carries a $9.6 billion valuation with $1.29 billion raised. MindMaze, out of Switzerland, is valued at $1.16 billion for NeuroX on $350 million raised. A second tier has begun to solidify: Merge Labs at $850 million, Precision Neuroscience at $500 million, Synchron at $300-450 million, and INBRAIN at $200–300 million. Below them sits a very long tail. More than 70 percent of companies remain under $50 million.
But the median has shifted upward. A year ago, the typical BCI company had raised about $9 million. Today, that figure is closer to $15-20 million. Enough to move beyond proof of concept and into early markets.
What the numbers mean
Concentration of capital: Six companies command more than two-thirds of total funding despite representing less than 10 percent of the field. Investors are betting on a winner-takes-most dynamic. However, this concentration raises monopoly risks and ethical issues, like protecting brain signal privacy. We need actions to reduce biases in BCI adoption, especially given global gaps, such as China's focus on centralized development programs versus the US's edge in innovative BCI tech.
The valuation gap: With only two unicorns and the bulk of companies still below $50 million, the sector looks undervalued relative to its potential scale. That window will not remain open for long.
Geographic diversification: This is not a Silicon Valley story. Europe and Asia-Pacific are running parallel races, each shaped by their own regulators and funding cultures. That creates both opportunity and complexity.
Platforms and approaches: No standard has emerged. Some are betting on implants like Neuralink and Precision. Others on stents like Synchron, surface arrays or consumer wearables. Merge Labs’ arrival shows hybrid approaches are now on the table. The platform with the most potential for commercial use remains undecided.
The avalanche ahead - Apple, Meta & Sam Altman have joined the Chat
In April, Apple quietly published a new Human Interface Device standard for “thought as input.” On the same day, Synchron confirmed its implant could control iPhones, iPads, and Vision Pro through Switch Control, turning neural spikes into device commands. Apple rarely moves early in unproven categories. A platform holder with 20 percent of global OS share told developers and regulators that thought-based control is arriving soon.
Meta followed in September with the Ray-Ban Display glasses and Neural Band wrist controller. The band uses electromyography to read muscle signals from the wrist, translating subtle gestures into digital input. It isn’t direct brain-to-computer, but it is the first time a big tech company has shipped a neural-style wearable at scale. Perhaps the first device to move neural input from prototype to commerce.
A month earlier, in August, Sam Altman announced Merge Labs, raising $250 million at an $850 million valuation. Altman will co-found the company with Alex Blania of Worldcoin. Early reports suggest Merge will pursue hybrid or less-invasive approaches, positioning it against Neuralink.
The specifics matter less than the significance of the move - brain computer interfaces are now a strategic priority for the same figures shaping global technology.
Strategic Positioning
1. The partnership window. With median funding at $15-20 million, startups need enterprise-scale datasets and manufacturing expertise. Clinical access and production capabilities can secure equity positions before valuations rise.
2. The standards war. Chile has amended its constitution to include neuro-rights. Colorado passed the first U.S. neural privacy law. The EU’s AI Act addresses brain data. Companies and jurisdictions that help shape these rules will gain durable advantages.
3. The talent gap. The industry employs perhaps 6-7,000 engineers and neuroscientists worldwide. As major players move in, competition for expertise will intensify dramatically.
4. The platform play. No dominant platform has emerged. Will it be Neuralink’s implant, Synchron’s stent, a wearable with sufficient performance, or Merge’s hybrid? The company that becomes the “Android of brains” will capture enormous value.
5. The product transformation. Anticipation, emotion, and biochemical reactions will become measurable. So will the resonance your product carries back with the consumer. Start mapping the neural profile of your products now and prepare for a shift from physical to cognitive design.
The Window Remains Open
Arbaugh told me the strangest part is not controlling computers with thought. It is how quickly it feels normal. That transition from impossible to inevitable defines all technological revolutions.
The market structure resembles early aviation or automotive industries. Many competitors, unclear winners, and enormous potential. Today over 100 companies race to define neural interface standards. Capital is concentrated in a few leaders, while dozens of startups fight for sustainable positions.
For those that want early exposure to the next big interface, paralysis is the wrong response. The industry needs partners: clinical sites, manufacturers, distributors, software portals, capital and regulatory expertise. Early participants will help define standards, markets, and adoption.
As I write in my upcoming book Neuraleap - “the brain will become the biggest market there is.” The window remains open, but not for long. With Apple’s endorsement, Meta’s neural launch and Merge Labs’ arrival, “later” could mean months, not years.
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Sources: Dealroom Sep 2025 dataset; Morgan Stanley “Brain–Machine Interfaces: Emerging Markets Primer,” Oct 2024; Apple HID v1.4 draft, May 24 2025; Company press releases and SEC filings.
Referenced in this article: Noland Arbaugh, Sam Altman, Alex Blania, Elon Musk, Neuralink, MindMaze, Merge Labs, Precision Neuroscience, Synchron, INBRAIN, Apple, Meta, Worldcoin, Morgan Stanley, Dealroom.